The difference between nonfiction and fiction is often the difference between fact and Truth1. And, yes, I do mean capital-T truth. Nonfiction lays out the facts, what happened and our best guess why. It reveals our nature. But fiction takes us inside the head of humans and interrogates what it means to be a person. Fiction may not be real, but it can be true. Often, capital-T truth is reserved for literary fiction in the book world and rarely if ever applies to thrillers. However, I think it applies to 2034 by Elliot Ackerman and Admiral James Stavridis because of the insight into the actors on their stage but also because of the political extrapolations they’ve made. In this novel, the authors conduct a thought experiment about how the next world war begins and is waged. Frankly, they created a frighteningly plausible scenario. What hit home with me most was the outside world’s view of the U.S and how damaged our international reputation has become. The political calculations made by the nations feel true whether they’re correct or not. 2034 should be a warning to us.
Disclaimer: The publisher provided me an advanced reading copy of this book in exchange for an honest opinion. All thoughts in this post are mine and mine alone.
© Primmlife.com 2021
TL;DR
From the Publisher
From two former military officers and award-winning authors, a chillingly authentic geopolitical thriller that imagines a naval clash between the US and China in the South China Sea in 2034–and the path from there to a nightmarish global conflagration.
On March 12, 2034, US Navy Commodore Sarah Hunt is on the bridge of her flagship, the guided missile destroyer USS John Paul Jones, conducting a routine freedom of navigation patrol in the South China Sea when her ship detects an unflagged trawler in clear distress, smoke billowing from its bridge. On that same day, US Marine aviator Major Chris “Wedge” Mitchell is flying an F35E Lightning over the Strait of Hormuz, testing a new stealth technology as he flirts with Iranian airspace. By the end of that day, Wedge will be an Iranian prisoner, and Sarah Hunt’s destroyer will lie at the bottom of the sea, sunk by the Chinese Navy. Iran and China have clearly coordinated their moves, which involve the use of powerful new forms of cyber weaponry that render US ships and planes defenseless. In a single day, America’s faith in its military’s strategic pre-eminence is in tatters. A new, terrifying era is at hand.
So begins a disturbingly plausible work of speculative fiction, co-authored by an award-winning novelist and decorated Marine veteran and the former commander of NATO, a legendary admiral who has spent much of his career strategically outmaneuvering America’s most tenacious adversaries. Written with a powerful blend of geopolitical sophistication and human empathy, 2034 takes us inside the minds of a global cast of characters–Americans, Chinese, Iranians, Russians, Indians–as a series of arrogant miscalculations on all sides leads the world into an intensifying international storm. In the end, China and the United States will have paid a staggering cost, one that forever alters the global balance of power.
Everything in 2034 is an imaginative extrapolation from present-day facts on the ground combined with the authors’ years working at the highest and most classified levels of national security. Sometimes it takes a brilliant work of fiction to illuminate the most dire of warnings: 2034 is all too close at hand, and this cautionary tale presents the reader a dark yet possible future that we must do all we can to avoid.
Review: 2034 by Elliot Ackerman and James Stavridis
2034 extrapolates a future based in the U.S.’s current damaged reputation. While the authors didn’t put it explicitly in the book, I imagine the public is still as deeply divided as we are today. The book begins with a U.S. Navy patrol in the South China Sea. The patrol stops to inspect a boat on fire and quickly learns that it was a trap set by the Chinese government. At the same time, an F35 pilot is flying – you read that correctly, the F35 is able to operate on missions in this book – a test of stealth systems along the Iranian border. The pilot loses control of the aircraft; its systems have been hacked. The F35 lands safely in Iran where the pilot is taken prisoner. Thus begins the small steps that lead towards war. As the U.S. focuses on China, Russia decides to get a shot in and also to take land from Poland. But mainly the aggressors are the U.S. and China.
The process of escalation from naval encounter to full-blown war was very well down. The authors present the political calculus that goes on behind the scenes very well. It makes sense why each country escalates, and it makes sense why they judge the other nation’s motives wrong. There’s even a John Bolton-esque character who cannot wait to get the nukes involved.
Commodore Sarah Hunt leads the ill-fated Navy patrol. Major Chris “Wedge” Mitchell is the pilot that becomes the Iranian prisoner. Dr. Sandeep Chowdhury, the deputy national security advisor, tries to get a hold on the situation despite U.S. politics getting in the way. Admiral Lin Bao of the Chinese Navy ascends in the Chinese government through luck and skill to precarious positions. The Iranian government trusts Brigadier General Qassem Farshad with the questioning of the American prisoner. These are the main characters of the book. We follow them and their exploits throughout the war. Each is distinct and understandable, though, maybe not likable. Each tries to do their best for their nation, even when their nation acts less than honorably. The authors do enough character work to make each one believable and to make their actions/decisions consistent with who they are. Frankly, I’m impressed with the character work done in this book. 2034 is short with a lot of ground to travel and time to cover. We get enough about each character to understand why they do what they do, which is important for a good book. But the authors do it so efficiently here. It’s marvelous.
2034, A Warning
2034 feels like a war game scenario that the military might put together to determine the U.S.’s capabilities. China claims the South China Sea as its territory, and at the same time, it doesn’t recognize Taiwan’s independence and seeks to reclaim it. 2034 plots how China is willing to step up those claims and make their play. While this book may seem pessimistic about the U.S. chances, a new report seems to indicate the book might know what its talking about. So, does this mean the scenario is the book is plausible or even likely?
Plausible? I would say yes. Likely? I don’t know. This book was written by a Marine who is also a a former White House Fellow and a retired Naval Admiral. Readers should expect that these men have insight into the international political scene. I think they’ve extrapolated out correctly, and this is heartbreaking for me because America’s place in the world is greatly diminished.
Russian meddling in the 2016 election shows how the U.S. has not taken cyber warfare as seriously as it should. This book extrapolates that to an even more pessimistic degree than I possessed. My hope is that the U.S. isn’t as far behind as we appear in this book. Congress’s failure to take cyber warfare seriously and fund it will be a weakness that we carry forward.
The Truth
So what about this book feels true? Most of it actually. In fact, the thing I found hardest to believe was that the F-35 ever flew combat missions. It barely flies at all. But the geopolitical situation felt right. Throughout history, the world has seen civilizations rise and civilizations fall. 2034 makes the rising countries a bit more obvious and the falling country, the U.S., explicit.
I can’t say why, but this novel made my country’s position in the world real to me. I paid attention to the last four years as my government embarrassed itself continuously and sucked up to dictators. But throughout those dark years, I still believed the American military is the best in the world. In a majority of ways, we are. We have the best troops; the best equipment – which is why China tries to steal our designs; and we have the best training methods. But we have an Achilles heel in cyber. But it’s more than that. In the book, the authors note that nations used to come to the U.S. to intervene and stop wars. Those days are long past as America starts most of the wars today. What does this say about us? Are we an empire in decline? Will we be lucky enough to end up like Britain, a post-imperial state stuck between the glory days of the past and the reality of today?
Conclusion
Elliot Ackerman and Admiral James Stavridis’s 2034 plays out how war between the U.S. and China might start. The book takes place on the world stage while zeroing in on the characters who conduct the war. 2034 is a book of excellent characters, plausible politics, and hard truths.
2034 by Elliot Ackerman and Admiral James Stavridis is available from Penguin Press.
© Primmlife.com 2021
7 out of 10!
- This is a bit simplistic. I have much more complex thoughts about what fiction and nonfiction represent and the roles that they play. But that’s outside the scope of this review. Click here to return.